Confidence Scores

Confidence indicates how complete and reliable source coverage appears for a country. It helps interpret uncertainty around the score, but does not directly raise or lower the score.

Overview

Each country's pressure score comes with an implicit confidence level. Countries with more data sources, higher event volumes, and better geographic attribution have higher confidence.

Confidence affects how you should interpret the score — not the score itself.

Confidence Factors

Factor Weight

Source count 30%

Event volume (30d) 25%

Attribution accuracy 20%

Deduplication certainty 15%

Language/region coverage 10%

Recency of updates 10%

Coverage Tiers

High (80–100%)

Major nations with extensive English-language media

Medium (50–79%)

Regional powers with mixed-language coverage

Low (20–49%)

Smaller nations with limited international reporting

Minimal (<20%)

Isolated or censored regions with sparse data

Interpretation

High confidence: Score is likely representative of actual conditions.

Low confidence: Score may under-report due to limited visibility. A "calm" score in a low-confidence country doesn't necessarily mean stability.

Countries with media restrictions or non-English primary languages tend to have lower confidence scores. This is a data limitation, not a judgment.

See the sources

View the full list of feeds powering the pipeline.

Sources Methodology